Friday 27 March 2026
Trinidad and Tobago is positioning for a significant rebound in natural gas production by 2027, as a wave of upstream projects led by global energy majors bp and Shell moves toward completion, signalling a potential turning point after years of declining output.
According to company reports and government statements, several major developments—including bp’s Ginger and Mento projects and Shell’s Manatee and Aphrodite fields—are expected to deliver first gas within the same window, boosting supply, export capacity and fiscal revenues.
bp confirmed the scale of its upcoming contributions in a statement. “Ginger will be our fourth subsea project in the country and will be tied back to our existing Mahogany B platform. First gas from the project is expected in 2027… At peak, the development is expected to have the capacity to produce average gas production of 62,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d).”
The company also highlighted additional near-term output gains from its infill drilling programme, with the infill programme “expected to deliver around 19mmboe, with the first gas expected in 2027.”
Shell, meanwhile, underscored the strategic importance of its parallel investments. “Aphrodite, together with Manatee, will help sustain Trinidad and Tobago’s gas industry into 2030,” the company said, adding that both projects are expected to come onstream in 2027. At peak, Aphrodite is projected to produce about 18,400 boe/d, while Manatee could reach 104,000 boe/d.
These developments are expected to stabilise a sector that has faced persistent declines in recent years. bp reported that its net natural gas production in Trinidad and Tobago fell from 1,191 in 2023 to 1,045 in 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in mature fields and underinvestment in new capacity.
Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar has framed the upcoming surge as evidence of renewed momentum in the energy sector. “Good news! Strong signs of growth ahead for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector,” she said, adding that her “Government has been working diligently on strengthening energy security since entering office, and we are seeing tangible results from that focus.”
She further emphasised the broader macroeconomic implications, arguing that “after years of decline, this signals increased gas output, greater energy stability, and more revenue and economic activity.”
However, the anticipated recovery has also become a point of political contention. Former Energy Minister and Prime Minister Stuart Young has argued that the projects underpinning the expected surge were largely initiated under the previous administration.
“There is not a single new initiative that Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal has conceptualised or is responsible for that has led to any increased oil or gas production since May 2025,” Young stated, pointing to developments such as Manatee, Aphrodite, Ginger and Mento as legacy projects.
“The reports of Shell and BP’s expected increased gas production in 2027 are all the work done by the PNM government… all our work,” he further asserted.
Beyond political debate, industry data suggests that the current pipeline of projects is critical for revitalising the wider energy services sector. A recent survey by the Energy Chamber found that 60% of firms reported below-normal business activity in early 2026, reflecting reduced upstream investment and fewer high-value projects.
The report noted that while maintenance-based “brownfield” activity has dominated in recent years, major greenfield developments such as Manatee, Aphrodite, Ginger and the Coconut project are expected to provide much-needed stimulus as they move through construction and into production.
The Energy Chamber also highlighted that “the execution of these major projects is proceeding as planned,” reinforcing confidence that the 2027 timeline remains achievable.
In parallel, government initiatives such as the proposed Energy Accelerator Hub aim to streamline approvals and bring projects onstream more quickly, potentially improving investment flows and local content participation.
Global market dynamics are also providing support. Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal noted that higher oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, have already boosted revenues. “Today Brent oil prices are at US$92… that means our revenue position just increased by US$4mn per month,” he noted.
Looking ahead, the convergence of multiple large-scale gas projects in 2027 represents a rare synchronised expansion of Trinidad and Tobago’s upstream sector. If delivered on schedule, this surge could restore production levels, strengthen LNG exports and reinforce the country’s role as a key energy supplier in the Atlantic Basin.
At the same time, the sustainability of this recovery will depend on continued investment, efficient project execution and the ability to navigate both domestic political dynamics and an increasingly complex global energy landscape.
Source: Caribbean Insight – Volume 48, Issue 6