Caribbean Insight
The Caribbean Council's Flagship Fortnightly Publication
Caribbean Insight is The Caribbean Council’s flagship fortnightly publication. Our comprehensive publication offers the latest in news, analysing business and political developments across the region.
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Lead Articles Featured on Caribbean Insight
27 June 2025
The Government of the Bahamas has marked its first return to international capital markets since 2022 with the successful issuance of an 11-year, US$1.067bn bond, proceeds of which will fund the repurchase of US$767mn in outstanding Eurobonds.
Announcing the transaction on 18 June, the Office of the Prime Minister highlighted strong investor demand, noting that the order book was “3.9 times oversubscribed” and that the bond closed at “a final coupon and re-offer yield of 8.250%,” reinforcing the country’s favourable yield-curve repricing.
A three-day investor roadshow, covering more than 60 institutional accounts across North America, Europe and the Middle East, was used to inspire global confidence in the Bahamas’ economic footing.
“Participants expressed strong support for The Bahamas’ credit fundamentals, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and economic outlook, driving positive transaction outcomes,” the government statement said.
Key to the deal was a liability management operation that extended the average maturity of the outstanding Eurobond portfolio by 2.1 years, from various maturities between 2028 and 2038 to a single maturity in 2036.
This reframing of the debt profile will reduce scheduled principal repayments by US$451mn over the next three years, smoothing the government’s near-term financing needs. “Proceeds from the new issuance will be primarily allocated to fund the associated liability management operation, with a portion expected to support national development priorities, including infrastructure investments,” the statement added.
In parallel, another round of Eurobond buybacks closed on 16 June. Under the terms of that programme, bondholders were offered cash for their securities at prices the government would determine “in its sole discretion,” enabling selective repurchases across six bond issues. While some maturities traded at a premium to par—such as a 9% coupon bond issued at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic—others were bought back at deep discounts, sharpening the complexity of the overall operation.
The issuance follows April’s positive rating actions by Moody’s and Fitch, which raised the Bahamas’ credit assessment on the back of fiscal consolidation efforts. It is also part of a broader external financing strategy that includes a US$300mn Debt Conversion Project for Marine Conservation (closed in November 2024) and a US$500mn international loan guaranteed by the Inter-American Development Bank in January 2024.
Rothschild & Co. and Hogan Lovells served as sole financial adviser and international legal counsel, respectively, while BNP Paribas, Citi and Deutsche Bank acted as global coordinators and joint bookrunners with CIBC FirstCaribbean.
Despite the applause for robust demand, some market observers have urged greater transparency on the timing and cost implications of the transaction. Gowon Bowe, CEO of Fidelity Bank (Bahamas), described the refinancing as “probably one of the most monumental announcements by the Government, but also one that highlights a lack of comprehensive disclosure.”
“No matter what price is offered, if there is a significant risk of non-payment persons won’t run to it. It’s important to note that, in accessing capital markets with the size of transaction that has been achieved, that requires confidence by investors notwithstanding whether your credit rating is high or low,” said Bowe, commending the strong subscriptions.
However, he questioned why the government proceeded now, given expectations of global interest-rate cuts. “Why would we seek to do this refinancing today when there’s an expectation of at least a 50-50% chance of recession in the US?” he asked.
With no significant principal amounts maturing until 2028, he argued, The Bahamas had the luxury of patience to potentially secure a lower yield. Additionally, Bowe noted that the new 8.25% coupon exceeds the interest rates on most of the bonds being retired, ranging from 6.625% to 7.125%, raising the prospect of higher long-term debt-servicing costs despite upfront principal savings.
Prime Minister and Finance Minister Philip Davis hailed the deal as a vote of confidence in The Bahamas’ economic trajectory. In response, Bowe urged the administration to clarify whether the goal was extending maturities or reducing borrowing costs. “If it is that we are trying to extend the term, then I would say, okay, I understand what you’re doing. But we were not under pressure that we had a billion dollars coming due next year,” he contended.
The government’s readiness to answer such questions will shape market perceptions ahead of future financings. For now, the US$1.067bn bond stands as both a testament to investor trust and a reminder of the trade-offs inherent in sovereign liability management, balancing immediate fiscal relief against the cost of higher yields over the long haul.
Source: Caribbean Insight – 27 June 2025 Volume 47, Issue 13
13 June 2025
ExxonMobil Guyana Limited (EMGL) has reported substantial profits of US$4.73bn for 2024, marking a significant 62% increase from US$2.92bn the previous year.
The jump is primarily driven by increased oil production from the Payara project, which commenced operations in November 2023.
John Colling, EMGL’s Vice President and Business Services Manager, attributed this sharp increase to the Prosperity Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel becoming operational.
“In 2024, ExxonMobil Guyana Limited generated US$8bn in revenue, which is up about 60% from the prior year, and that’s really driven by the Prosperity FPSO coming online and higher production volumes,” said Colling.
Despite these robust profits, Colling stressed that ExxonMobil remains financially behind on its investments. He explained that the consortium has invested a total of US$40bn but has only recovered US$33bn through cost recovery processes outlined in the 2016 Production Sharing Agreement (PSA).
“ExxonMobil Guyana and its partners have invested US$40bn to date and have only recovered US$33bn. So, there is a cost recovery ongoing,” he clarified. Colling projected, however, that Guyana’s revenue would substantially increase once these costs have been fully recovered.
“From splitting between EMGL and its partners and the Government of Guyana, we expect by the end of the decade, that the Government of Guyana will be receiving US$10bn per year in profit oil and royalty,” Colling estimated.
Under the current (PSA) from 2016, ExxonMobil can recover its investment, capped at 75% of revenue from oil lifts. However, Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo and others suggest Guyana’s revenue share will significantly increase as soon as these amortisation costs are fully recovered.
Currently, Guyana receives approximately 14.5% of profits, with this expected to rise substantially by the decade’s end, potentially reaching US$10bn annually in profit oil and royalties.
The ExxonMobil-led consortium, including partners Hess and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), earned combined profits of US$10.4bn in 2024, up 64% from the previous year. Hess alone reported profits of US$3.1bn, and CNOOC recorded US$2.5bn in profits, both experiencing a 67% boost compared to 2023.
ExxonMobil and its partners have seen their combined asset base rise substantially, increasing by 23% to reach US$34.3bn in 2024, up from US$27.9bn in 2023. Colling highlighted the significance of this growth, stating that the expanded asset base provides the “initial layer of financial assurance” against potential oil spill risks. The company also maintains third-party insurance of US$600mn and a US$2bn affiliate guarantee, adding further layers of financial protection.
“Our number one priority is safety to ensure that a spill never occurs. But in the event something were to occur, there are several layers which provide financial assurance,” Colling affirmed.
He also indicated the possibility of increased insurance costs due to a Venezuelan military vessel entering Guyana’s Exclusive Economic Zone earlier this year. “It’s possible but I prefer not to speculate,” said Cooling, wary of confirming a definite hike. He also acknowledged that growing activity and increased assets might naturally lead to higher insurance premiums.
Production from the Stabroek Block surged significantly, increasing from 391,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2023 to 616,000 b/d in 2024. Further production increases are anticipated as additional projects, including Yellowtail, become operational later this year, potentially pushing daily production beyond 900,000 barrels by the end of 2025.
Reflecting this continued expansion, the Government of Guyana has introduced a revised model PSA for future contracts, aiming to enhance national revenues. Notable amendments include reducing the cost recovery ceiling from 75% to 65%, increasing royalty payments from 2% to 10%, and instituting a 10% corporate tax. Additional provisions feature signing bonuses as high as US$20mn for deep-water block contracts.
Looking ahead, ExxonMobil intends to triple its oil output in Guyana within the next five years, committing to significant additional investments throughout the decade. These initiatives reflect both the company’s and the government’s intentions to responsibly manage this critical economic resource, ensuring sustainable financial benefits for the nation.
As Guyana anticipates increasing oil revenues, effective governance and strategic resource management will be crucial. With careful stewardship, the nation could transform its economic prospects dramatically by 2030, navigating the delicate balance between short-term gains and sustainable development, and of course the upcoming general election.
Source: Caribbean Insight – 13 June 2025 Volume 47, Issue 12
30 May 2025
Suriname’s political landscape has been thrust into high-stakes coalition negotiations following Sunday’s general election, which delivered a near-deadlock between the ruling Progressive Reform Party (VHP) and the opposition National Democratic Party (NDP).
With neither party securing a parliamentary majority, the battle to form a governing coalition has begun, as the country stands on the cusp of a potential oil-fueled economic transformation.
Preliminary results show the NDP secured 18 seats in the 51-member National Assembly, narrowly edging out incumbent President Chandrikapersad Santokhi’s VHP, which captured 17.
Sixteen seats were split among smaller parties, making them pivotal players in the race to form a new government and elect the next president, an outcome that requires a two-thirds parliamentary majority, or 34 votes.
“We are on the right track. There are still a few thousand votes to be counted, and we hope that it will continue in our favour,” said NDP chairwoman Jennifer Geerlings-Simons. “But we are where we are now, and we will continue from there. This is the first step and believe me, we are already working on it,” she added.
President Santokhi, who received the highest number of individual votes with 42,521, acknowledged the need for collaboration. “At some point, you will have to use the result as a basis. That is the official mandate of the people to the political parties. Then you see what it is, how big it is, and on that basis, you work out options for cooperation,” he said, adding that the VHP “is open to any cooperation that is necessary for the progress of the development of the country.”
The NDP’s vice-chairman, Ashwin Adhin, said that the party’s focus was on forming a majority bloc led by Geerlings-Simons, who succeeded the controversial Desi Bouterse as party leader. “I had indicated that the majority of votes determines the candidate. She has the most votes, so a man is a man, a word is a word,” he added, reaffirming his support for her candidacy.
The NDP has signed an agreement with five minority parties including the Alternative 2020 Party (A20), the Brotherhood and Unity in Politics party (BEP), the General Liberation and Development Party (ABOP) led by former Vice President Ronnie Brunswijk, the National Party of Suriname (NPS), and the Pertjajah Luhur Party (PL). The latter three were until recently coalition partners of the Santokhi Administration, but have withdrawn their support, citing exclusion in policy creation.
With vote counting and verification still ongoing, the country waits for confirmed tallies to pave the way for the National Assembly to meet and choose a president. The coalition led by Geerlings-Simons at present holds 34 seats, which would be just enough to secure the two-thirds majority needed to form a government.
If Geerlings-Simon is elected as president, she would be the first female to hold that office in the country’s history. “There has not yet been any discussion about ministerial positions, but about how the governance of the country can be improved. On that basis, we have reached an agreement and decided to sign the letter of intent,” said the presidential hopeful at the agreement signing.
Meanwhile, concerns have been raised about the electoral process, particularly regarding polling station 614 in the Brokopondo district. The Independent Electoral Office (OKB) admitted there were “suboptimal” conditions at the station, citing staff inexperience and logistical challenges, but firmly rejected allegations of manipulation or fraud. “We emphasise that there are no indications that there has been deliberate manipulation or fraud,” the OKB said in a statement.
This election carries immense implications for Suriname’s future. The next administration will oversee the early stages of the country’s US$12.2bn GranMorgu offshore oil development in Block 58. Operated by TotalEnergies, the project is expected to begin production in 2028, potentially transforming Suriname’s economic fortunes.
Santokhi’s VHP, aligned with a market-driven agenda, is credited with restoring fiscal discipline through an IMF programme and investment reforms. However, austerity measures have sparked public dissatisfaction. By contrast, Geerlings-Simons and the NDP advocate for increased social spending, equitable oil revenue distribution, and greater scrutiny of foreign corporate contracts.
“This general election is assessed as a critical juncture,” Bloomberg News noted, “not merely a transfer of power, but impacting which developmental path Suriname will choose going forward.”
Political analysts caution that without careful management, Suriname risks falling into a resource trap. “If Suriname becomes excessively dependent on oil revenue, it may fall into a ‘resource curse’ that could hinder long-term growth,” experts warn.
Appearing to hold on to some hope, in a message to supporters, Santokhi urged unity and resilience. “The future offers new opportunities to make a difference. Let us put our shoulders to the wheel and continue to build a stronger and more prosperous Suriname together.”
As the nation waits for the official election results, electoral authorities report that data from around 40 polling stations still needs to be uploaded to the Ministry of the Interior’s dashboard as of Thursday. Additionally, turnout figures from 27 stations have yet to be entered, which is estimated to represent roughly 20,000 votes.
At a press briefing, Chair of the IT Elections Committee, Previen Ramadhin cautioned that the results remain subject to change, with recounts requested at several polling stations across different districts.
Source: Caribbean Insight – 30 May 2025 Volume 47, Issue 11
15 May 2025
Kamla Persad-Bissessar has returned as Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago, vowing to lead a compassionate, inclusive, and decisive administration.
Her United National Congress (UNC) secured a majority by winning 26 out of 41 seats, effectively ending the People’s National Movement’s (PNM) decade-long governance.
“You will be my priority. You must always know you have a leader who cares for you and understands your problems,” said Persad-Bissessar during her historic swearing in, becoming the only woman to serve twice as Prime Minister.
Her new government is significantly larger, with 32 members sworn in by President Christine Kangaloo on 3 May. Among the top appointments are John Jeremie as Attorney General, Davendranath Tancoo as Finance Minister, and Dr Roodal Moonilal as Energy Minister.
The expanded Cabinet includes several new portfolios, such as Artificial Intelligence, separate ministries of National Security and Defence, as well as new emphasis on rural development and planning.
“Our highest priority will be not just to communicate with you, but to commune with you… We have done it before, and we will do it again. We will work to make life better for all,” said the 73-year-old Persad-Bissessar during her first address to the nation as Prime Minister.
One of her first promises is to repeal the controversial Trinidad and Tobago Revenue Authority (TTRA) which the PNM advanced as a single revenue collection agency. Describing it as an “abysmal failure,” she noted that only 32.6% of public officers expressed interest in transferring to the TTRA. Instead, her government will focus on strengthening the existing Board of Inland Revenue. “Proper governance and record keeping will be prioritised,” she added.Addressing the country’s fiscal crisis, Persad-Bissessar revealed a US$651.24mn deficit for May and a projected US$1.61bn for the fiscal year. “They didn’t even leave fumes,” she said, blaming the previous PNM government. She laid out recovery plans including overdraft withdrawals, refinancing Treasury bills, and drawing on the Heritage and Stabilisation Funds to be able to honour salary promises.
“We have very competent people in Finance,” she insisted, adding that new revenue sources would come from cutting waste and reprioritising spending. Persad-Bissessar announced cost-cutting measures such as slashing spending on advertising, luxury vehicles, and security details. “For far too long, your tax dollars have gone to waste,” declared the Prime Minister.
She also confirmed her government will abandon the PNM’s attempt to reintroduce property taxes and will refund those who have already paid. This announcement has been met with some resistance in the country. “You can’t tell me the Treasury is empty… and then be telling me that you’re not collecting property tax,” argued economist Dr Daren Conrad, criticising the decision as financially reckless.
Despite this, Persad-Bissessar is confident her government has a plan. “We weren’t caught by surprise, so we were ready with the plans, policies and programme to fix it. And fix it we will,” said the Prime Minister as she laid out a legislative agenda including “stand your ground’ and home invasion laws, and fast-tracking firearm permits for law-abiding citizens.
Energy remains a priority, with plans for regional cooperation. “Let us explore the offer being made by Guyana to bring gas to Trinidad and Tobago… and Grenada’s offshore potential.” She added, “We will rebuild hope. We will rebuild dignity,” said Persad-Bissessar.
On the contentious Salaries Review Commission (SRC) salary hikes, she argued that she has no legal power to reverse them. “I do not have that prerogative,” she said, referring the matter to Attorney General Jeremie.
The Prime Minister appeared to offer an olive branch to the Tobago People’s Party (TPP)—which holds the two parliamentary seats on the island—announcing that there will be renewed legislative collaboration.
However, the TPP has so far made it clear that there will be no coalition with the UNC, with MPs prioritising the interests of Tobago in parliament.
Following the electoral defeat, the PNM is preparing to elect a new leader in June 2025. This comes after former Prime Minister Keith Rowley announced his resignation as the political leader. Additionally, Stuart Young, who had served as the PNM’s Prime Ministerial candidate, resigned as the party’s Chairman.
In the interim, Nyan Gadsby-Dolly and Colm Imbert previously the Minister of Education and Minster of Finance were appointed party chairman and Vice Chairman, respectively.
“Trinidad and Tobago has had prime ministers before me and will have others after me. But you will never have another prime minister who loves this country as much as I do,” declared Persad-Bissessar as she called for national unity.
With a renewed mandate and an ambitious reform agenda, Trinidad and Tobago enters a new political chapter. Whether this expanded Cabinet can deliver remains to be seen, but what is clear is that the now main opposition PNM must now prioritise its rebuilding efforts.
Photo reference: https://www.instagram.com/mpkamla/?hl=en
Source: Caribbean Insight –
02 May 2025
Caribbean nations are breathing easier after securing a major diplomatic and economic victory with the US’ decision to exempt the region from steep tariffs on Chinese-built ships.
The decision, which protects critical supply chains and stabilises shipping costs was announced on 17 April 2025 by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). It was confirmed that vessels operating in and around the Caribbean, including those servicing US territories, would not be subject to the newly introduced port fees on Chinese-built ships.
Initially, the tariffs, aimed at countering China’s dominance in global shipbuilding, threatened to impose surcharges of up to US$1.5mn per vessel visit on operators including those in the Caribbean.
The Caribbean Private Sector Organisation (CPSO) praised the announcement, calling it “a much-needed relief.”
“As originally proposed, the USTR fees—exceeding US$1mn for each US port call—would have increased the cost of shipping between the Caribbean and the US, with crippling consequences for inflation, shortages, delays, and other supply chain disruptions,” explained the CPSO.
The exemption followed a months-long campaign led by Caribbean leaders, private sector organisations, and industry stakeholders. Barbados Prime Minister and CARICOM Chairman, Mia Mottley had written President Trump directly on behalf of the bloc, while Antigua Port Authority CEO Darwin Telemaque, and CPSO Chairman Patrick Antoine were among the key figures lobbying US officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
The USTR’s determination grants specific exemptions vital to the Caribbean economy including short sea shipping where routes under 2,000 nautical miles are exempt. Vessels under 55,000 deadweight tonnes (DWT) and fewer than 4,000 TEUs are also exempt, as well as specialised cargo ships including larger vessels carrying chemicals or energy products up to 80,000 DWT.
Tropical Shipping, a major carrier for the Caribbean, announced it had been granted an exemption, sparing its customers potential tariffs. “This is a huge victory for us and the entire Caribbean region that we serve,” said President and CEO Tim Martin, adding that “Our voices were heard.”
Seaboard Marine and King Ocean, other major regional operators, also secured an exemption. In a statement, Seaboard Marine noted that the “outcome is significant for our customers, communities, and partners across the Americas and the Caribbean.” They emphasised that the proposed policy threatened “to disrupt trade and the movement of essential goods.”
US Congresswoman Stacey Plaskett (US Virgin Islands) played a crucial advocacy role in Washington, with her strategic interventions at US Ways and Means Committee hearings helping drive the Caribbean exemption forward.
She warned that the fines could backfire on the US by pushing Caribbean nations even closer to China. “The other concern is, one that has been mentioned by my colleagues as well, is national security. We cannot have Caribbean nations moving closer to China, who is already on the shores of these Caribbean nations, to try and do increase trade with them, if we are having a trade war with China,” said Plaskett.
Industry-wide concerns had mounted globally when the Trump Administration initially proposed the tariffs under a 2023 investigation. Executives warned that fees could stack up, harming US exporters and pushing up prices for American consumers by as much as US$30bn annually. “Ships and shipping are vital to American economic security and the free flow of commerce,” acknowledged US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
Ultimately, Caribbean advocacy appears to have proven effective. The CPSO said that it orchestrated a coordination call with over 700 participants across industries, two regional consultations, and numerous technical submissions. “The CPSO Secretariat, under the technical leadership of Patrick Antoine and his team, played a significant role with their submissions and oral testimony,” the organisation highlighted.
Special acknowledgment was also given to regional institutions like the Caribbean Shipping Association, the Port Management Association of the Caribbean (PMAC), and the Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association (CHTA), as well as the CARICOM Secretariat for their support.
The Trump administration’s final rule, published in the Federal Register, carved out specific exemptions for Caribbean shipping, Great Lakes operators, and vessels servicing US territories. While Chinese-built ships owned by Chinese firms will face levies of up to US$50 per net tonne (rising by US$30 annually), Caribbean-based operations will avoid the harshest impacts.
Looking ahead, CPSO Chairman Gervase Warner pledged continued vigilance in what is increasingly an uncertain global economic space. “The CPSO will continue advocating on crucial matters such as the impact of US tariffs on CARICOM trade,” he said.
With shipping lanes secured and trade flows protected—at least temporaily—the Caribbean can move forward a bit more confidently in the face of continued significant downside risks which have seen the IMF revise growth projections for the region in its latest World Economic Outlook report.
Source: Caribbean Insight – Volume 47, Issue 9
18 April 2025
The US has revoked key licences that enabled Trinidad and Tobago to pursue joint natural gas projects with Venezuela, in a move that has sent shockwaves through the nation’s energy sector and raised questions about its economic future.
Prime Minister Stuart Young confirmed the revocation of the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) licences for the Dragon and Cocuina-Manakin gas fields during a sombre press conference at Whitehall on 8 April.
“We have now been informed that our licence from OFAC, which is dated 18 December 2023, has been revoked by OFAC, as well as our Manakin-Cocuina licence,” said Young.
The licences had allowed multinational energy giants Shell and BP, along with Trinidad’s state-owned National Gas Company, to develop offshore gas fields near the Venezuelan maritime border. The Dragon field alone holds an estimated 4tn cubic feet of gas, with first exports initially slated for 2026.
These projects were seen as critical to reversing Trinidad’s declining gas output and maintaining its status as Latin America’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter.
However, the Trump Administration’s broader rollback of an ease in Venezuelan sanctions has left the Caribbean nation scrambling for alternatives. “It prevents payment at this stage to the Venezuelan Government. We are going to continue doing the work,” Young said, adding that companies have until 27 May to wind down operations.
Trinidad had already begun paying over US$1mn per year in taxes to Venezuela for the expected 20-year Dragon project. But the move by Washington, citing concerns over Venezuela’s failure to restore democratic norms and manage illegal migration, has effectively frozen the deal.
Young made it clear that his government is not giving up. He has already contacted Washington-based attorneys to explore options for a legal response. “There is a process for, I wouldn’t say appeal of this revocation, but for you to make an application for it not to be, or for there to be amendments. We are going to be engaging that process on behalf of Trinidad and Tobago,” he said.
Young has also reached out to key US officials, including Special Envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. “I expect that we will be given an audience. I expect that we will be given the opportunity to continue to make our case,” said Young.
The Prime Minister stressed that the US had earlier assured him the move was not intended to harm Trinidad and Tobago. “Secretary of State Rubio told me, ‘Stuart, in this thing there are many ways and times can change, but don’t worry, we’re not going to harm Trinidad and Tobago,’” he shared.
Nonetheless, opposition politicians have seized on the setback. David Lee, shadow energy minister for the United National Congress (UNC), criticised the government’s overreliance on Venezuela. “You had placed all your eggs in the basket of the Maduro government… We told them so,” said Lee during a campaign walkabout in Preysal.
UNC’s Sean Sobers was even more direct. “What we said is we had a problem with Maduro, dealing with the Venezuelan administration, and that it would be a geopolitical nightmare to place Trinidad and Tobago’s future in one basket.”
Economists and energy experts have echoed concerns. “This means short to medium term disaster for the economy as it spells the continued contraction of the energy sector,“ warned Dr Indera Sagewan in an interview with the Guardian Newspaper, adding that “we knew a Trump administration would spell bad news for this deal.”
Energy expert Tony Paul noted that while the situation is grim, opportunities remain within Trinidad’s exclusive economic zone. “We can start by simply collecting the taxes due to us under existing law and closing major revenue loopholes,” said Paul.
From a fiscal perspective, the consequences are stark. Former Finance Minister Colm Imbert, in a sworn affidavit, admitted that without gas from Venezuela, the government would “soon be faced with very difficult choices in terms of maintaining the current levels of subsidies, grants, free services and social programmes.” The country’s ongoing foreign exchange problem is also a concern.
The Energy Chamber also urged a redirection of focus. “There are significant opportunities to develop natural gas fields within Trinidad and Tobago’s exclusive economic zone and these must also be pursued actively and urgently.”
Still, Young assured the population that all is not lost. “Plan B and Plan C and Plan D are already in play,” he said, highlighting the ongoing Manatee project and other domestic fields like Mento, Calypso, and Onyx.
“The good thing is they understand and have taken careful note of what it is Trinidad and Tobago can do,” Young added, referring to his discussions with US officials. “We will continue to fight for the ability and the opportunity to keep our energy sector whole.”
Yet, as Trinidad nears its 28 April general election, the political and economic implications of the revocations are expected to loom large over the national conversation and whether the ruling People’s National Movement (PNM) will be returned to power.
Source: Caribbean Insight – Volume 47, Issue 8
04 April 2025
Only days after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s tour of the Caribbean, President Donald Trump has created another powder keg when he announced sweeping global tariffs on countries including those in the region.
Trump’s 1 April executive order imposed a blanket 10% tariff on most Caribbean countries, while in the case of Guyana, the tariff is as high as 38% according to the White House website. The new tariffs are being justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and framed as a response to “non-reciprocal” trade relationships.
The move has rattled CARICOM, where around 40% of exports—such as petroleum, agriculture, and manufactured goods—are shipped to the US. Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley described the policy as “a blindsiding blow to our economic stability,” while Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG sector began evaluating its impact on US competitiveness. Regional consumers may face rising prices for US imports like food, worsening inflation.
“The government of Guyana has taken note of the reciprocal tariffs announced by the US Government… our Government is closely engaged with our US partners to better understand the issue and have it addressed as appropriate,” said Guyana’s Finance Minister Ashni Singh.
CARICOM currently imposes tariffs on US products under its Common External Tariff, ranging from 0–20% on industrial goods and up to 40% on agriculture. The situation has raised fears of economic instability across the Caribbean and marked a potential turning point in US–CARICOM trade relations.
Days earlier, Secretary Rubio completed a largely positive tour of the region where the Trump Administration’s foreign policy was on the agenda, as regional leaders sought to directly address a range of thorny issues at the heart of recent geopolitical tensions.
His meetings in Jamaica, Guyana, and Suriname underscored a sharp focus on trade, the Cuban medical programme, energy security, organised crime, migration, and the deepening rivalries with China and Venezuela.
Rubio’s meeting with Prime Minister Andrew Holness in Jamaica tackled multiple high-stakes issues, including the controversial US travel advisory that urges Americans to “reconsider” travel to Jamaica due to crime.
“We’re going to go back and reevaluate the travel advisories as they currently stand to ensure that they do reflect the reality of the new numbers,” Rubio said, acknowledging that Jamaica has “made very impressive progress” in general numbers overall when it comes to the murder rate.
Much of the spotlight in Jamaica was on the Cuban medical programme, which the Trump Administration views as exploitative.
“We have no problem with medical assistance and we don’t have a problem with doctors. We have a problem… how it’s operated around the world… It’s not that they’re Cuban doctors, it’s that the regime does not pay these doctors, takes away their passports, and basically it is in many ways forced labour, and that we cannot be in support of,” said Secretary Rubio, attempting to clarify the US position.
However, Holness responded strongly in defense of the programme and Jamaica’s handling of Cuban doctors. “Let us be clear, the Cuban doctors in Jamaica have been incredibly helpful to us. We ensure that they are treated within our labour laws and benefit like any other worker,” said the Prime Minister.
Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley took the opportunity to directly raise alarms about a proposed US tariff on Chinese-built ships that could increase shipping costs dramatically.
“What we potentially face with the announced cess—levy, whatever you want to call it—on ships made in China will have serious and deleterious consequences for the commerce not just of Barbados, not just of the Caribbean, but also for Florida,” Mottley warned. She estimated that such a tariff could add between US$1,500 to US$4,000 to the cost of importing a single container.
Mottley urged the US to exempt Caribbean nations from the policy and wrote directly to President Trump in her capacity as CARICOM Chairman. Rubio offered only cautious reassurance: “Rest assured we will take that message back,” while defending the administration’s broader trade stance as an effort “to reset global trade in a way that’s fair to the US.”
Rubio and Mottley also discussed the US-Barbados partnership under the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative. According to a State Department spokesperson, the two leaders focused on “tackling illicit narcotics and firearms trafficking, dismantling organised crime networks, and strengthening regional security coordination.”
Talks with recently sworn in Trinidadian Prime Minister, Stuart Young focused on energy cooperation and border security. Young said he received assurances that “the US will not harm Trinidad and Tobago,” particularly in relation to the Dragon Gas Deal with Venezuela. Rubio was reportedly receptive, with Young adding, “We are moving full speed ahead.”
The pair also discussed the US designation of Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation. Rubio called on Caribbean nations to join the effort to dismantle such networks, noting, “Many of the guns and the weapons that are being used by gangs to commit acts of violence here in Jamaica are purchased in the US and then shipped here and we want to commit to doing more to stopping that flow.”
Security concerns reached a peak in Guyana, where Rubio issued a stern warning to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro over territorial claims on Guyanese land. “There will be consequences for aggressive action,” Rubio declared. “We have a big navy, and it can get almost anywhere.”
Guyanese President Irfaan Ali welcomed the firm stance, saying, “I’m very pleased at the reassurance of the US, ensuring the safeguard of our territorial integrity and sovereignty.” The US and Guyana also signed a new security memorandum targeting narco-trafficking, smuggling, and human trafficking.
Rubio did not hold back on his criticism of China either, referencing poor-quality infrastructure projects. “We almost all had concussions because the road was so bad – it was terrible,” he said of a Chinese-built road in Guyana. “They bring their workers. They don’t hire you.”
China’s mission in Guyana fired back, accusing the US of making “baseless accusations” and trying to “drive a wedge” between China, the Caribbean and Latin American countries.
The past few weeks in US-Caribbean relations have shown that while Rubio’s Caribbean tour may reflect the Trump Administration’s deeper engagement with the region as it seeks to push back against Chinese and Venezuelan influence, it is clear that the region may not be spared in the US’ push to rebalance its trade with the rest of the word.
Source: Caribbean Insight – Volume 47, Issue 7
21 March 2025
Several Caribbean countries are breathing a bit easier after the US disputed reports that it is considering implementing new travel restrictions that could affect six Caribbean nations—St Lucia, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, St Kitts and Nevis, Haiti and Cuba.
According to the The New York Times, countries have been categorised into three levels of restrictions: a “red” list, where travel would be completely banned; an “orange” list, which would impose severe visa restrictions; and a “yellow” list, where nations have been given 60 days to address specific security concerns or face possible escalation to the other two categories.
St Lucia, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, and St Kitts and Nevis allegedy fell under the “yellow” list, while Cuba has been placed in the “red” category, alongside Venezuela.
The Times noted that the categorisation was based on concerns about “inadequate security practices for issuing passports, insufficient information-sharing on travelers, or the selling of citizenship to people from banned countries”.
Each of the four Eastern Caribbean nations on the yellow list operates a Citizenship by Investment (CBI) programme, which allows foreign nationals to acquire passports in exchange for financial investment. The US has raised concerns that such programmes could be exploited to bypass existing travel restrictions.
Caribbean governments were quick to seek clarification on these potential restrictions. St Lucia’s Prime Minister Philip Pierre stated that his administration had received no official communication from the US regarding the country’s inclusion on the list.
“The Government of St Lucia and the St Lucian Embassy in Washington DC are actively seeking clarification on this matter… The USA is a friend of St Lucia and remains a key partner in St Lucia’s development. We look forward to an even stronger relationship between our two countries,” said the Prime Minister’s office in a statement.
Similarly, Antigua and Barbuda’s Prime Minister Gaston Browne instructed his Ambassador to the US, Ronald Sanders to send a diplomatic note to the US State Department. Browne voiced his discontent, asserting that “there is no objective justification for Antigua and Barbuda to be placed on a list that could hinder the travel of its citizens”.
The Government of St Kitts and Nevis stressed its commitment to resolving any concerns related to its CBI programme. “Since August 2022, we have maintained open dialogue with the US government, particularly regarding reforms to our CBI programme,” a statement from the government read.
Meanwhile, Cuba’s alledged inclusion in the “red” category means that its citizens could face a complete ban from entering the US. Given the longstanding strained relations between Washington and Havana, the move comes as no surprise. The Times report suggests that the Trump Administration views Cuba and Venezuela as “long-standing adversaries of US foreign policy.”
The rumured restrictions would reflect a significant expansion of travel bans imposed during President Donald Trump’s first term. The initial bans, which primarily targeted Muslim-majority countries, were challenged in courts but ultimately upheld by the US Supreme Court. President Joe Biden revoked those bans in 2021, but with Trump back in office, his administration argues that reinstating and expanding the policy is necessary.
The Trump administration have justified the travel restrictions as measures designed to protect American citizens from “aliens who intend to commit terrorist attacks, threaten our national security, espouse hateful ideology or otherwise exploit the immigration laws for malevolent purposes”.
This approach has drawn criticism, as many of the countries affected by these proposed restrictions are small, developing nations. Kevin Hosam, Founder and Chairman of EC Holdings, raised concerns about the criteria used to select countries for these lists.
“It’s puzzling that Grenada, which also operates a CBI programme, is absent from these reports,” he said, adding that “this inconsistency raises questions about the rationale being used for these designations”. He also called for clarity on the lists; noting discrepancies between different reports with some countries listed in the New York Times article missing from Reuter’s report.
“Well, first of all, there is no list. What people are looking at over these last several days is not a list that exists here that is being acted on. There is a review, as we know through the president’s executive order, for us to look at the nature of what’s gonna help keep America safer when dealing with the issue of visas and who’s allowed into the country,” said US State Department spokesperson, Tammy Bruce.
“So, that’s not something that is – certainly I can talk about regarding something that doesn’t exist, but certainly when that review is done, we’ll have something that we can discuss,” said Bruce.
While the final decision rests with the White House, sources within the State Department suggest that the lists could still be developed along the line reported.
As the review unfolds, Caribbean governments are hoping to avoid travel restrictions that could significantly impact tourism, business, and diplomatic relations.
For now, affected nations must wait as the Trump Administration finalises its latest immigration policy adjustments. Given the region’s reliance on US travel for business, tourism, and familial ties, the coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether any changes would target the Caribbean.
Source: Caribbean Insight – Volume 47, Issue 6
10 March 2025
The fate of Trinidad and Tobago’s highly anticipated Dragon gas deal with Venezuela has been thrown into uncertainty following a series of hardline measures by US President Donald Trump against the Maduro Administration.
The Trump administration’s recent policy reversals have cast doubt on whether the project, vital for Trinidad’s energy security and economic stability, can move forward as planned. On 26 February, President Trump announced the termination of a license granted under the Biden Administration that allowed US oil giant Chevron to operate in Venezuela.
“We are hereby reversing the concessions that crooked Joe Biden gave to Nicolás Maduro, of Venezuela, on the oil transaction agreement, dated 26 November 2022, and also having to do with electoral conditions within Venezuela, which have not been met by the Maduro regime,” said Trump on Truth Social.
Following Trump’s announcement, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed a broader crackdown on energy deals with Venezuela. “Today, pursuant to @POTUS directive, I am providing foreign policy guidance to terminate all Biden-era oil and gas licenses that have shamefully bankrolled the illegitimate Maduro regime,” said Rubio on social media.
Acting Prime Minister and Energy Minister Stuart Young admitted that the government could not guarantee the survival of the Dragon gas deal, which involves Trinidad’s National Gas Company (NGC) and multinational energy giant Shell.
“Can we provide any assurance at this stage? The answer is obviously no. Are we engaged with the right people, we believe? We think we are and we will continue to work, and at every step of the way, if there is something for us to report, we will,” said Young at a media briefing.
He added that Trinidad remains in contact with US Embassy officials, Shell, and BP to assess the impact of Washington’s latest moves. “At this stage, there has been no indication of any negative effect on Trinidad and Tobago,” Young said, while acknowledging the difficulty in predicting future US policy.
The Dragon gas project, initially signed in 2018 and revived under the Biden administration, is crucial for Trinidad’s energy security. The project is expected to supply 200mn cubic feet of natural gas per day by 2027, which is essential for keeping Trinidad’s liquefied natural gas and petrochemical industries running.
“This deal and that gas being delivered in 2027 is what is going to help us with the foreign exchange, it’s what’s going to help us continue paying the bills on your behalf, continuing in ensuring that there are drugs in the hospital, our children continue to receive education, and that is what we’ve consistently been fighting for,” said Young, chiding opposition officials for their recent comments on the deal.
He confirmed that Trinidad has made payments to Venezuela as part of the Dragon gas agreement. “The answer is yes, payments have been made with respect to Dragon,” he admitted, but declined to disclose specific figures, stating that Shell and NGC were handling those payments.
Reports indicate that Trinidad has been paying Venezuela approximately US$1mn per year in surface taxes, social contributions, and royalties as part of the agreement. Rubio’s comments about Maduro’s funding have raised concerns that these payments could become a political target in Washington.
With the Dragon deal facing uncertainty, the Trinidadian government is now focused on lobbying the US for an extension of its current license, which expires in October 2025. Sources close to the negotiations confirmed that Prime Minister Keith Rowley intends to push for an extension when he meets with US officials.
Shell and NGC remain optimistic about the project’s potential. The companies have completed geotechnical surveys and well data assessments and believe that at least 4.2tn cubic feet of gas is present in the Dragon field.
Meanwhile, Young, who is set to succeed Rowley as Prime Minister in March, vowed to continue advocating for the deal. However, the geopolitical stakes remain high. While Venezuela stands to gain an estimated US$30mn per month in revenue from Dragon’s gas sales, the deal’s survival hinges on US sanctions policy. Trinidad, for its part, must navigate a complex diplomatic landscape, balancing its economic interests with Washington’s shifting stance on Venezuela.
Source: Caribbean Insight – Volume 47, Issue 5
