Central America Briefing
The Caribbean Council's Exclusive Publication on Central America

Covering Guatemala to Panama, Central America Briefing provides our subscribers and members with a fortnightly spotlight on the key business opportunities and political developments affecting foreign investors with business operations or capital investments in the region.

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24 July 2026

The El Salvador government is continuing to expand its Bitcoin holdings despite warnings from the International Monetary Fund that it could imperil its US$1.4bn programme with the multilateral.

The National Bitcoin Office stated that the reserve was more than 7,715 BTC on 15 July, worth US$489.06mn. Public records suggest that the government is buying one Bitcoin a day at prices between US$61,840 and US$64,492.

“Perhaps we will all have the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a discount,” El Salvador President Nayib Bukele posted on X.

This still represents a substantial profit for the country as according to data from tracking firm DropsTab, more than US$423mn of public funds has been used to purchase Bitcoin.

How Bukele manages to soothe the IMF remains to be seen. The Extended Fund Facility (EFF) he signed with the institution had a stipulation that El Salvador scaled back its exposure to Bitcoin. It required the reserve to remain unchanged and demanded that the Legislative Assembly made merchant acceptance of Bitcoin voluntary, not obligatory.

El Salvador did ban tax payments via Bitcoin, liquidated the Fidebitcoin trust, disclosed public-sector wallet addresses and adopted a plan to end public participation in the Chivo digital wallet. However, the EFF prohibits the accumulation of Bitcoin with public funds.

According to Max Keiser, El Salvador’s chief Bitcoin advisor, the country aims to accumulate around 20,000 BTC. A three fold increase in its holdings would require serious negotiations with the IMF.

Fitch Ratings describes the Extended Fund Facility as having “stalled” and the second and third programme reviews set for September 2025 and March 2026 have not been completed. This has delayed access to disbursements which El Salvador needs to shore up public spending and especially its debt to pensions which stands at US$11.57bn as of May 2026.

Fitch affirmed El Salvador’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B-‘ with a Stable Outlook in April of this year. They consider a 2023 pension-related debt operation a default on a distressed debt exchange.

Pension reform is a further demand of the IMF and remains a political hot potato. An actuarial study suggests the Solidarity Guarantee Account could run out by 2029.

Perhaps the greater conflict between the IMF and El Salvador is in the marketing of Bitcoin. The State continues to publicly promote a one-BTC-per day strategy but the IMF stated that the increase in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Fund reflects a consolidation of BTC across various government-owned wallets, rather than new market purchases. The issue will become clearer in the coming months when the IMF arrives to complete their programme reviews. Part of the EFF stipulations include audited financial reports for all Bitcoin-linked public entities.

Digital asset platform Bitfinex believes there are three profiles of Bitcoin users in El Salvador – the saver seeking to protect capital, companies that have incorporated Bitcoin into their financial strategy and institutions that are betting on tokenization.

El Salvador has been at the vanguard of creating the legal and financial framework to allow for digital assets to be traded. However, Bitfinex argues that a regional approach is required.

“For both individual and corporate use cases to evolve into a permanent and robust infrastructure, Latin America needs a unified foundation with institutional standards. The momentum generated by users and corporate treasuries has already demonstrated the potential of blockchain infrastructure,” said Fabián Delgado, Business Development Manager for Colombia and Latin America at Bitfinex

“Now the responsibility lies with the ecosystem developers and those responsible for designing public policies that will allow the construction of a formal financial architecture for the region.”

Even with laws in place and financial options to purchase Bitcoin and other digital assets, the next step El Salvador and Central America needs to take is in adoption. Remittances received by crypto increased by 41.7% between January and July of this year, to US$29.25mn.

Five years after the Bitcoin Law came into being, the realities of day-to-day public finance might end up crushing Bukele’s dream.

Source: Central America Briefing | Vol 14, Issue 15

 

 

10 July 2026

Costa Rica’s Legislative Assembly has given a final approval for reforms to boost plans for a marina in Limón. This would herald a major push for tourism in the Caribbean region of the country.

Controversial former President Rodrigo Chaves will oversee the project which, combined with reforms to JAPDEVA, has raised the hackles of critics. However, proponents of the project argue this will allow authorities to seek strategic partners for construction in Limón.

The plans consist of a marina and cruise terminal on the Caribbean coast and it received unanimous support from all 50 lawmakers.

Once it receives President Laura Fernández’s signature, the plan will become law. The reform changes JAPDEVA’s organic law to allow the state port authority to enter into alliances with public or private partners whether they be national or foreign entities. This will allow the agency to develop large projects on an infrastructure, tourism, commerce, technology and service basis.

Chaves proposed a US$10bn plan for a marina in Limón during his presidency but opponents in Congress eventually blocked it by citing JAPDEVA’s own regulations. The plans for Limón have been discussed for years and the reform does not mean that construction will start on the marina. Instead, JAPDEVA can pursue projects with oversight from technical studies, economic justification and oversight. Each alliance has to be approved by the agency’s board of directors with a 50 year limit on agreements. Projects will still be subject to oversight from the Comptroller General Office, the main public sector spending watchdog.

An additional 1.5% fee on gross income will be added to each alliance to help finance supervision and oversight. This was at the recommendation of the Comptroller Office who had expressed reservations of how strategic alliances would be used in public infrastructure projects and whether they were ways to get around PPP laws.

The final version of the bill added that projects on JAPDEVA public land cannot lose public ownership. Nor can it be sold, leased or used as collateral.

Critics argue this is a rewritten version of Chaves’s “Ley Jaguar” which suffered constitutional problems and remained unfulfilled at the end of his presidency. Chaves will oversee a team made up of officials from the Ministry of Public Works (MOPT), ICT (Tourism Institute), JAPDEVA, Minae (Environment Ministry), Finance and the Presidency.

“I entrust this project to Mr. Rodrigo; he will coordinate the team. (…) This isn’t about favouritism, because this is giving a great deal of additional responsibility to someone who already manages two ministries, but honor to whom honor is due, and I told them I’m going to take advantage of his experience,” said President Fernández.

The marina and cruise terminal is a project valued at US$900mn and would generate thousands of direct and indirect jobs and spearhead Limón’s development.

“I told them I’m going to take advantage of his experience. Mr. Rodrigo, of the entire cabinet, is the one with the most experience in financial structuring, because I’m sure we’re going to hunt for private investors willing to take advantage of the beauty of the Costa Rican Caribbean,” added Fernández.

The jobs created are essential to combatting drug trafficking and insecurity in the area, argued Fernández. The president promised that the project would be free of corruption and would promote Limón as a world-class tourism destination.

“I come here today to sign a pact with you, a pact that we will develop this project with excellence, with transparency, free of corruption and cronyism. We will develop this project, but not as an isolated project; it will be linked to a comprehensive development model, which is what this province needs,” concluded Fernández.

Source: Central America Briefing | Vol 14, Issue 14

26 June 2026

Regional economies are on course to outperform Latin American rivals with substantial economic growth shown by recent central bank results.

The news will be a boost for Central American governments that have been proactive in dealing with inflation, diversified their trading partners and exports and taken advantage of the World Cup bounce.

Nicaragua’s economy grew by 6.1% in Q1 2026, Panama’s by 4.8% in the same period, Costa Rica and Guatemala’s economic activity grew 4.5-4.6% from January-April. The Honduran Central Bank reported 3.5% growth so far in 2026. This is in contrast to forecasts for Latin America which puts GDP growth at 2.1-2.3% for this year.

Long term issues such as structural challenges, weak institutions, political instability, high borrowing costs and access to finance remain which makes Central America’s growth all the more impressive. Costa Rica’s growth was driven by financial services, construction and IT services. However, exports from the country’s free trade zones have softened due to lower global demand. For an export industry built on medical technology making 48-52% of sales, this could become a larger issue.

Guatemala’s growth has been defined by strong domestic and regional trade which includes Central American exports outselling those to the US for the first time in the country’s history. Between the two, they brought in US$3.69bn. Manufacturing has increased and remittances remain strong with a 10.5% year-on-year growth to US$8.43bn in the first quarter.

Under new President Nasry Asfura, Honduras has attempted to tackle its major issues such as a lack of employment opportunities, violence and debt at the National Electric Energy Company (ENEE). Growth has been concentrated in financial services, telecommunications and agro-industry, especially coffee. 

The Banco Central de Nicaragua (BCN) announced growth of 6.1% in the first quarter of 2026.

“Economic activity maintained the growth rate of previous quarters, with quarterly GDP registering year-on-year growth of 6.1% (5.9% in the previous quarter),” said a BCN statement.

For 2026, the BCN estimates total growth of 3.5-4.5% and inflation between 2.5% and 3.5%. Mining led Nicaragua’s economic impetus with a 24% year-on-year growth with construction not far behind at 16.7%. Trade showed impressive results of a 15.8% rise, hotels and restaurants were up 9.8% and agriculture and livestock rounded out the top five with a 6.8% improvement.

However, not all sectors showed growth and fishing and aquaculture suffered with a 10% drop. Electricity (-3.9%) and public administration and defence (-3%) also showed negative growth.

Consumption grew by 3.6% whereas strong domestic demand was down to fixed investments at 10.9% growth. Net external demand was led by exports with 12.9% growth, outpacing imports which grew by 5.8%.

This would be the sixth year running for GDP growth in Nicaragua following a contraction from 2018-2020 which included the Covid-19 pandemic effects.

Panama’s economy grew by 4.8% in Q1 2026 with the Canal leading the way. Transportation, storage and mail all had strong performances but the economy was driven by a 5.4% increase in Canal revenues.

The National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) reported that the Canal and construction and trade were the main impetus for growth. GDP reached US$22.55bn in the first quarter, a US$1.03bn rise year-on-year.

Transport, storage and mail had the largest growth at 8.2% thanks to Canal revenues and services for the increased number of ships passing through. Average daily crossings have increased to 41, compared to 36-37 normally due to the Middle Eastern crisis. Traffic through the Canal represents 3-6% of total global trade.    

Construction had a growth of 6.5% due to an increase in residential building and public infrastructure works. Trade was just behind at 6.4% with fuels, construction material, textiles, food and beverages and other consumer goods leading this sector.

Protests in Bocas del Toro over pension reform for banana plantation workers saw an 80.6% drop in banana exports that accounted for the contraction in agriculture of -4.3%. Fish (-16.4%) and milk (-11.6%) also showed heavy losses.

Panama’s economy is expected to grow by 3.8-4.1% this year according to multilateral organisations.

Source: Central America Briefing | Vol 14, Issue 13

12 June 2026

The future of Panama’s mining sector lies in the hands of a three-minister inter-institutional team. With a decision due on the Cobre Panamá mine this month, President José Raúl Mulino’s attempts to reactivate the economy faces its biggest test.

At full capacity, Cobre Panamá represented about 5% of the country’s GDP and 75% of its exports. It contributed US$2.5bn annually to GDP, created over 40,000 direct and indirect jobs and generated hundreds of millions for government revenue through taxes and royalties. A failure to reopen the mine would imperil Panama’s investment grade rating.

“From the first day of my administration, I have been clear. The issue of the mine would be addressed in due course, and it would be done with clear, objective information, using data from international experts in a comprehensive audit,” said Mulino in a public statement.

The group responsible for the technical report on the Cobre Panamá will be headed by Julio Moltó, Minister of Commerce and Industry. Also included will be Felipe Chapman, Minister of Economy and Finance and the Minister of Environment Juan Carlos Navarro. Navarro is an interesting choice given he has a public anti-mine stance. The technical report will be the basis for future decisions on the mine. It will include economic, environmental and legal perspectives.

Work at the mine was suspended in 2023 after the Supreme Court ruled that the contract First Quantum had signed with the government was unconstitutional. The company estimates that Panama has lost US$3.5bn in economic contributions through 2025 including US$1.1bn in taxes and royalties.

“We are proud to play a central role in driving economic growth and national development through tax contributions, local investment, and employment,” said First Quantum in a statement. “First Quantum remains a growth company – we will deliver this growth through true partnerships, underpinned by our commitment to responsible mining and contributing to the prosperity of the regions where we operate.”

The suspension followed months of social unrest across the country. Protests began in October 2023 following the passing of the contract with First Quantum Minerals which gave the company a 20-40 year concession for Cobre Panamá. The mine is the largest open-pit copper mine in Central America. In May, protests in Panama City regarding the mine’s future attracted hundreds of people rather than the numbers in 2023.

Cobre Panamá’s influence on the Panamanian economy is so strong that Moody’s recent review of the economy kept it at Baa3, the lowest investment grade and with a negative outlook. This was due to public debt, tax revenues and state finance consolidation. The rating agency said reactivating the mine would generate recurring revenue for the state and improve public finances and strengthen investor confidence in the country. This would alleviate fiscal pressure as deficit reduction, government revenue, greater fiscal transparency and reforms to ensure sustainability are still required. Fitch has already moved Panama to BB+ and into speculative territory.

Mulino promised in January to give a decision on Cobre Panamá by June but the president promised that he will not be hurried into making it. Citing the protests, Mulino said, “I have learned what improvisation caused, what the lack of clear information generated in society.”

Instead, Mulino promised to let the inter-institutional team work and use their technical report to help make his decision. The report will not have the final independent audit from SGS Panama Control Services after the company requested an extension on its delivery.

“Just as we did with the ports, we will work responsibly, listening to those who know, understand, and have experience in the matter, in order to make the best decisions for the country and its people,” added Mulino.

Photo Credit https://cobrepanama.com/nota/cobre-panama-makes-history-by-opening-its-doors-to-the-public-5112

Source: Central America Briefing | Vol 14, Issue 12

1 May 2026

The Middle Eastern war will likely widen economic issues across Latin America and the Caribbean according to the IMF. In the short-term, oil exporters are likely to see a boost whilst tourism-reliant economies and those that have to import energy are more at risk. The multilateral estimated that the region will grow 2.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027. Central banks have kept inflation in check and growth is mainly going with projections states the IMF’s report on the region.

However, inflation will rise through higher fuel, transport and food costs. Most of the countries to benefit from the war are in South America with export income rising for oil producers. Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago in the Caribbean have seen likewise changes. Central America as an energy import region will face significant issues with the IMF suggesting renewable energy could provide some relief.

Source: Central America Briefing | Vol 14, Issue 9

17 April 2026

The European Union and Honduras’s National Electric Energy Company (ENEE) have signed an agreement to modernise the country’s ageing power grid. As part of a broader €1 bn regional investment, the European Investment Bank (EIB) will provide Honduras with a €200 million loan. This funding prioritises the construction and renovation of seven critical transmission lines, selected from twenty-one identified as high-priority. These upgrades are essential to address a 50-year-old infrastructure that has exceeded its lifespan, including the vital Nicaragua interconnection.

Energy Minister Eduardo Oviedo emphasised that ENEE faces US$6.5 bn in investment pressures over the next decade, necessitating private sector involvement. Currently, private firms generate two-thirds of the nation’s electricity. By combining technical assistance with high-tech industrial offers, the EU aims to improve grid reliability and reduce technical losses. This strategic international cooperation represents a vital step toward securing long-term energy sustainability while meeting the country’s rising annual demand.

Source: Central America Briefing | Vol 14, Issue 8

2 April 2026

The US Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has reported an unprecedented surge in the detention of Panama-flagged vessels at Chinese ports, with nearly 70 ships held since early March 2026. This aggressive spike in inspections is viewed as a retaliatory move by Beijing following a Panamanian Supreme Court ruling that invalidated port concessions held by the Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison.

Following the removal of the Chinese-linked operator, Panama appointed US-affiliated subsidiaries of Maersk and MSC as interim managers, a shift influenced by Washington’s efforts to curb Chinese control over the Panama Canal. FMC Commissioner Laura DiBella suggested these detentions are intended to punish Panama for the asset transfer. Given that Panama-flagged ships carry a significant portion of global trade, the FMC is now investigating whether China’s actions constitute an unfair disruption to international commerce and the strategic waterway that handles 5% of global maritime traffic.

Source: Central America Briefing | Vol 14, Issue 7

23 March 2026

In 2026, Central American economies will show moderate growth, according to the latest IDB forecast. Despite this resilience, the subregion faces fiscal challenges. Panama recently improved its fiscal position through strong income growth, while Guatemala experienced a deterioration driven by higher expenditures but still managed to increase tax revenue by 9.1%. A critical stabilizer for Central America is the steady inflow of remittances. To sustain long-term growth, the region must address low productivity and the need for digital skill development. The IDB plans to invest a record US$500 bn in Latin America and the Caribbean over the next ten years as it recognizes the advances in the reduction of poverty and the decrease in regional risk.

Source: Central America Briefing | Vol 14, Issue 6

6 March 2026

AES has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired and taken private by a consortium led by BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) and EQT Infrastructure, in a transaction valued at US$10.7 billion in equity ($15 per share) and an enterprise value of approximately US$33.4 billion. The acquisition is designed to provide AES with the capital required to expand its clean energy and utility infrastructure beyond 2027 across the Americas, El Salvador and Panama in Central America.

Source: Central America Briefing | Vol 14, Issue 5