2 October 2026
Developments in September including falling remittances and the potential loss of TPS status for Salvadorans and Hondurans has seen experts caution about future inflows.
An Inter-American Dialogue study reported that El Salvador inflows of remittances are up 3.7% to US$5.92bn in the first seven months of the year but projections for 2026 see a fall from 19.3% growth in 2025 to 7.3% this year.
“In my opinion, the greater risk is not the 55,000 TPS beneficiaries, but rather the possibility that immigration enforcement policies could extend to the nearly 800,000 Hondurans [in the US] without legal status,” said economic analyst Alejandro Kaffati.
El Salvador’s [TPS] designation was set to expire on 9 September but the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) failed to publish its decision within the statutory timeframe. This is an extension by default rather than a substantive decision, so uncertainty persists, argues Kaffati. Automatically a six-month extension came into play but at least 177,000 Salvadorans face losing their migration status and work permits when it is reviewed.
Recent data from the US suggests that the amount of migrants arrested in the US has fallen by 50.2% this year. Figures from the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) state that detentions of those from the Northern Triangle have fallen to 21,741 from 43,686. If this trend continues, it points to slower consumption growth in 2027. Mexican authorities arrested 9,659 people between January and June this year, 59.5% less than the 23,875 arrests in the same period of 2025. This suggests fewer people attempting to migrate or traffickers learning alternative routes to avoid capture.
About 11,000 Salvadorans had been returned by August with an estimated 17,050 for the year. The first quarter showed a 90.2% increase of deportations year-on-year. Last week saw a new 400 person crowd attempt to cross through Guatemala and Mexico to reach the US.
“We are leaving the country because of the need we have; there is no work here in Honduras,” an unnamed migrant told reporters.
The Inter-American Dialogue study added that inflows are lower than previous years due to less migration, fewer new senders of remittances, slower growth in migrant incomes and higher deportations. Guatemala was the largest recipient of remittances between January and July of last year with US$15,45bn or 53.1% of the total.
This will have a significant impact on household consumption and external accounts. Remittances account for 20-30% of the GDP of the Northern Triangle countries. Honduras relies the most on remittances at 30.1% of its GDP according to 2025 World Bank figures.
Should US migration policy and deportation operations ramp up, so the threat of more returnees than the 33,000 so far in Honduras remains. An estimated one million Hondurans live in the US with 200,000 having legal status or citizenship. The numbers are incomplete as by definition the informal worker does not legalise their status and the census data the US and Honduras has relies much on volunteer consul workers.
Despite the risks and increased enforcement of stricter migration policies, migrant trains persist. Although it could be a political stunt for the mid-terms in the US, it highlights the desperation ordinary Hondurans feel.
“We already know that the United States doesn’t want to receive migrants from any country, but we’re going to try,” added another member of the Honduran caravan to reporters.
So far in 2026, the United States and Mexico have deported more than 30,000 Honduran migrants.
“The message to the caravan is you will not be allowed into our country,” White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis told Newsweek. “Any illegal aliens who pay cartels to smuggle them in the United States should expect the same outcome: arrest, prosecution where appropriate, and immediate deportation.”
The caravan now named “Fe y Esperanza,” or “Faith and Hope” has swelled to over 600 migrants by 28 September. It now includes Guatemalans, Salvadorans, Haitians and Ecuatorians as well as Hondurans.
Source: Central America Briefing | Vol 14, Issue 18