13 October 2025

Falling foreign currency earnings from exports are affecting Cuba’s ability “to purchase supplies, raw materials, fuel, food, and other products essential to the economy and society,” according to an official media report of a recent meeting of Cuba’s Council of Ministers.

Although few economic details and no statistics were published, the meeting was told that revenue from exports continued to fall through August.

Addressing Ministers, President Díaz-Canel painted a picture of a country with limited foreign exchange earnings, needing the will to address comprehensively the problems it faces.

His comments and the tenor of official reporting suggests that Cuba’s economic situation is deteriorating at a time when social tensions are growing and the island needs to find rapidly the resources required to address multiple problems including uncollected, potentially disease-carrying refuse that has been building up in Havana’s streets (See story below).

Warning about the potentially severe implications for the country, Cuba’s President was quoted by Granma as saying. “No one is going to solve Cuba’s problems for us. We have to solve them ourselves …. with revolutionary audacity and creativity, and also with effort…”

According to Granma, in response to ministerial reports on economic performance, Díaz-Canel stressed the need for all exporters to work to transform the situation. “It is vital for the country; much of the economic growth depends on exporters, both of goods and services,” he was quoted as saying. Cuba’s President also stressed the need to strengthen services exports, strengthen tourism, and expand into other services areas where he said the country has great potential. In doing so, he called for greater agility, especially in relation to the development of IT and other services that can generate greater income.

On the subject of Cuba’s failing agricultural and industrial production, he reportedly told ministers that without greater production “we are very limited.” Regarding the sugar sector, he emphasised that its mission is not just to produce sugar, but also to produce derivatives and have a focus on sugarcane production as an energy source. “For that, the first thing we need is to have sugarcane,” he said in a probable reference to the 2024-25 campaign that most analysts believe to have been the worst for sugar in over a century.

Cuba’s President also stressed the need to increase retail sales. The Cuban economy will not recover if there is no domestic production, primarily of food, he told ministers.

Earlier, Cuba’s pragmatic Minister of Economy and Planning, Joaquín Alonso, had stressed the need for the business community to direct its efforts “toward achieving the full implementation of approved self-financing schemes in foreign currency to generate increasing resources for the economy.”

He had also stressed to colleagues the need to prioritise and accelerate measures that address the introduction of renewable energy sources for productive operations; implement rapidly agreed measures to address water supply shortages; and to increase the supply of goods and services in domestic currency (CUP) if macroeconomic stabilisation is to be achieved.

He also stressed the need to strengthen logistics for exports, and to achieve a greater number of foreign investment projects, especially those that result in a value-added increase in revenue.

No update provided on macroeconomic stabilisation programme

Although Ministers were reported to have addressed progress on the macroeconomic stabilisation programme agreed in December 2023, no new details were provided other than the fact that an updated version had been approved by the Politburo on 22 September. This the reports noted will now “form the basis of the discussion and analysis process that will take place in the country.” The updated document’s revised approach was described as “important”.

No indication was provided as to substance or progress being made on key issues previously intended to be resolved in the second part of 2025 such as the introduction of a new exchange rate mechanism.

The nature of the report suggests that government is likely to struggle to achieve the 1% growth it had hoped for this year. Last year, the economy contracted by 1.1% and in 2023 by 1.9%, according to official figures. The UN’s Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, ECLAC, recently forecast that the Cuban economy will contract by 1.5% this year.

Other issues considered at the Council meeting

Granma reported that the Council of Ministers was told that a significant reduction in the accumulated fiscal deficit had been achieved largely through an over-fulfilment of revenues and “significant under-executions of expenditure, both current and capital because of the unmet activity levels.” The meeting also heard that the country has a “current account surplus that is favourable, enabling a focus on capital expenditures.”

Although the budgets of some municipalities and provinces were reported to have been positive at the end of August, with five provinces, Artemisa, Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and Villa Clara, continuing to consolidate their surpluses ,Cuba’s Prime Minister, Manuel Marerro was quoted as emphasising the need to accelerate the process. A municipality, he said, will never fully develop if it does not achieve surplus status. To this end, he told colleagues, a more in-depth analysis at the regional level is required in relation to increasing revenues, management, and compliance with key indicators.

During the meeting, Ministers approved an updated Portfolio of Foreign Investment Opportunities, which according to the Minister of Foreign Trade and Investment, Oscar Pérez-Oliva, will “increase the share of foreign direct investment as an important source of economic and social development.” Pérez-Oliva also noted that work is underway to identify projects in Cuba’s territories “that leverage existing endogenous resources and are sufficiently attractive to attract investors.” The investment emphasis in the new portfolio is on oil, tourism, the sugar agroindustry, food production, the biopharmaceutical industry, manufacturing, and mining.

In her presentation, the Comptroller General, Miriam Marbán, said that her office was focussed on monitoring the “use and allocation of current transfers approved for unbudgeted business activity,” and on systematic and rigorous oversight at every level to ensure compliance with government’s objectives.

Among the draft decrees discussed was one from the Presidency “To regulate the process of planning work objectives and activities in the bodies and agencies of the Central State Administration, national entities, and local bodies of People’s Power.” Though few details were provided, the document appears to seek to reorder the process of planning, and how it should be applied to the government’s macro-economic stabilisation programme “using different management techniques.”

Highlights in this issue:

• President calls for unified response to the multiple problems facing Havana
• Report details central role of provincial Party in local economic decision making
• US Supreme Court agrees to hear Helms Burton related cases following DOJ testimony
• Security and military cooperation agreement signed with Nicaragua
• To weaken UN sanctions vote, US tells allies Cubans are fighting with Russia in Ukraine

13 October 2025, Issue 1297

The Caribbean Council is able to provide further detail about all the stories in Cuba Briefing. If you would like a more detailed insight into any of the content of today’s issue, please get in touch